Mac History Poor Predictor of iPod Future
Mike Davidson has some interesting analysis of Apple’s options with the iPod. I posted my thoughts to his blog (you can read them on his site), but I’m posting them here, too:
Nice article. I generally agree with your analysis, but I think you’re overlooking something fundamental: Market-share comparisons between Macs and iPods don’t work.
The Mac didn’t blow a commanding lead — it never had one
Market-share has fluctuated over the years, but it’s never been anything remotely close to half the market.
The iPod has a commanding lead
If you think that this is an untenable situation, then you must also thing that Microsoft will soon lose their lead with Windows in the OS space. I don’t believe that, and I doubt you do, either.
FairPlay is genius
DRM we can live with. DRM the labels can live with. Controlled by a company that’s not a convicted monopolist.
Fashion is an opportunity for Apple, not a threat
Of course white iPods will go out of fashion. Do you see Apple trying to sell Blueberry iMacs any more?
I have the same relationship with my cell phone that you imagine Jobs has with his; I hate it. It’s ugly, clunky, and all but unusable. I’d rather pass it through my small intestine than try to listen to music or surf the web with it. (I don’t doubt your Treo’s an improvement on it.)
Before long, we will see that Jobs’ dismissal of video on iPods is just a weak attempt at throwing Microsoft and Sony off the scent while Apple takes a swipe at another entertainment-industry segment.
